AIDS/HIV is not my area of expertise by a long shot, but
HERE is a link with some information.
As I see it...strictly personal opinions here...everyone, unless they have been totally celibate all their lives, is as some risk for contracting the disease, although it may be more minimal for some than others. As NorCal said, it sometimes takes years and years for the virus to show up in the blood tests available and therefore, we may harbor it, unknowingly, for years and years. Although we may feel better about getting periodic tests, that isn't any real assurance.
And like so many have said...I don't go without a condom unless I know someone really well. Yeah, right. Right off the bat, how many people, regardless of how well you know them, are going to tell you, "Oh, yeah...I picked up some guy/gal in a hotel bar one night in City, State and had a jolly good time! Nope...most don't. If anything, I think swinging partners are probably more honest about this type of stuff than those some of us might just start dating. After all, with swingers, it can be reasonably assumed we've had more than a few partners. With the cute, little, petite, blue-eyed, innocent looking blonde that Mom introduced you to...her best friends daughter...who knows.
Look at the transmission among health care workers. Although the incidents of needle sticks are considerably less, they still happen with great frequency. And who would be at greater risk than health care workers getting stuck with contaminated needles or hands cut with blood-covered scalpels? But again, were the relatively few HCW's that became infected actually infected in the work environment or was the virus already there? It seems, for the most part, that they were infected outside of their work environment.
I believe there is a ton more research to be done before we ever find out what this virus is all about, how it is really transmitted, the immune system response...that sort of thing. Look at the AIDS/HIV rates in Africa...a poor nation with nutritionally deprived people that could lead to some form of immunosuppression. Does that have anything to do with it? Don't know. Just wonder.
Another scary thing that could have contributed to the epidemic of the 80's-90's...in the early 80's, AIDS was around, but we didn't know what it was, and we didn't call it that. We just knew people were immunosuppressed and dying in spite of the antibiotics and other drugs we poured into them. During those early times, we did not wear gloves, masks, goggles...all that protective equipment. And in fact, as late as 1982, most of us were taught NOT to use gloves with patients - made them feel dirty and untouchable. And I guarantee you, needle sticks were as common back then as sunshine today! It wasn't a "day at the office" unless you had at least one! Again, you would think HCW's would have been dropping like flies, but they weren't. Why not? I don't know.
I personally believe that we need to all take as many reasonable precautions as possible, just as we do when we get into an automobile. Most of us don't drink and drive, we wear seatbelts, we drive the speed limits, we stop at traffic lights and stop signs, we check our tires, etc. However, in spite of all attempts at safety, some of us are going to be involved in major and minor accidents. We only decrease our chances with vigilence to details.
The same can be said about our sex lives. Use the type of caution that is necessary in this day and age to protect ourselves and others. Beyond that, other than living a totally celibate life in a cave somewhere, what else can you do?
Oral transmission? Possible, I suppose...people with gum disease, open sores in their mouths...that sort of thing. But think of this. What about a hangnail? Or you've been working out in the yard with your rose bushes and have a bunch of micro-cuts on your hands and fingers. Later that night your hands and fingers are exposed to vaginal and penil secretions. Potential source of infection right there and something you probably didn't think about.
NorCal summed it up reasonably...
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Play SAFE with those you're not sure about... Play CAREFUL with those you think you're sure about.
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For me, I'm going to play it SAFE with everyone. There are just far too many conflicting sources of information and too much we don't know yet to do otherwise, IMO.
To tell you the truth...I'm far more concerned about the transmission of hepatitis than AIDS/HIV. Another reason for playing it SAFE with everyone.
Off my soapbox now.... -EBF