It probably won't surprise you that I totally disagree with your numbers above. Furthermore, many of the numbers you give above are so out of context that they are meaningless.
For example,
you said, "The risk that an individual with herpes and not on a suppressant is shedding the virus is 3.1% [approximately 1 in 32] whereas the risk with individuals on the suppressant is between 0.52% and 0.35%. [Between 1 in 192 and 1 in 285]
See: http://www.natap.org/2004/HIV/051004_05.htm"
But that isn't supported or even claimed by the study you referenced. Those numbers have nothing to do with a persons risk of encountering someone who is shedding. Those numbers represent the number of days that 73 of the 169 subjects of the 16 week study were shedding the virus. Of the 169 subjects with abnormally high recurrences (at least 3 outbreaks in 6 months) of genital herpes that started the study, only 73 are included in those numbers because the rest did not shed the virus during the study, or were excluded for other reasons. Furthermore, those numbers represent the percentage of the 112 days of the study that the subjects that shed the virus were actively shedding, which does not correlate at all to my risk of encountering someone who is shedding amongst the general population, nor was that the claim made by the study. In fact, the study went on to say that although the suppressive drug studied reduced the number of days the patients actively shed the virus, it did not reduce the frequency of their outbreaks.
One more example,
You said, "Simply not true. Over 70% of the time, the disease is transmitted during periods when there are no outward signs of infection.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/e...&indexed=google While being knowledgeable about the disease can certainly help the infected know when they are likely to be contagious, all that the partner has to go on is whether an open sore is visible on their partner. That is not enough to substantially reduce the risk of contracting the disease."
Again, a totally out of context and misleading number, it actually says that of the people in the study, having sex with a partner known to have herpes, 70% report they observed no signs of an outbreak when they contracted the virus. The previously infected partner usually went on to show signs of an outbreak within hours of the time when sex occurred and the observation was made, and the subjects of the study would have refrained from sexual activities had the signs of an outbreak been present. So it is no surprise, that among observant educated people having sex with someone known to have Herpes, that 70% of them would contract the virus during the period when their partner was shedding asymptomatically just prior to having visible signs of an outbreak. This has absolutely no correlation to what one might encounter outside of a controlled study, or when one is unaware that his partner has Herpes, nor do the researchers claim it does. The time that an infected person sheds the virus asymptomatically is far less than when they shed the virus symptomatically. So, if I am observant and knowledgeable about what to look for, the research data shows that a person having an outbreak is far more likely to be showing obvious signs of having an outbreak while shedding than not.
That being said, from my perspective, the following are the actual numbers important to me;
If I play with people who are not infected, my chances of contracting the virus are 0%. If someone has the virus, whether they are on suppressive therapy or not, the chances that they will be shedding the virus at some time in the future is close to 100%. No one can tell me for certain what the chances are that I personally may end up playing with someone on the day they happen to be shedding. So the only way I have to reduce my risk in relation to people known to have the virus is to not play with them. I realize that their is a possibility that I may end up playing with someone who has Herpes and is shedding asymptomatically, and in that sense you are correct, I am playing the odds. My only point is, that my study of the research available has proven to me that the odds aren't anywhere near as bad as your numbers above make them out to be. And no matter how you look at it, playing with someone that I know has Herpes, on suppressant therapy or not, increases my chances of contracting the virus. In that respect, for me, their is no difference in risk between someone on suppressive therapy or not.
The only thing I can really agree with you about is that the people who admit they have Herpes will most likely be shunned by other swingers. Unfortunately, unless they find a cure or vaccine for Herpes, I don't know of anything that can be done about that.